Future Backwards
Developed by Dave Snowden and Cynthia Kurtz, Future Backwards is a strategic narrative tool that helps groups explore their past, present, and possible futures. Participants map the path that led to the current state (history), then develop two extreme future scenarios — Heaven (the best imaginable outcome) and Hell (the worst) — and trace the trajectories that lead to each. It surfaces values, unspoken assumptions, and strategic priorities.
Facilitation script
- 1
Set up a horizontal timeline on a large paper roll: past on the left, present in the middle, future on the right. Explain the three passes — history, Heaven, Hell — before anyone writes anything.
5 min - 2
History pass: the group maps the key events and turning points that led to the current situation on sticky notes, working backwards from the present.
20 min - 3
Heaven pass: in small groups, imagine the best imaginable future state — deliberately extreme, not merely 'better' — then map the chain of events that leads from today to it.
20 min - 4
Hell pass: imagine the worst plausible future and map the chain of events that leads there. Keep it plausible enough to sting.
15 min - 5
Current position: plot the trajectory the organisation is actually on today and ask the group whether it bends toward Heaven or Hell.
10 min - 6
Identify strategic interventions: what could be done now to raise the probability of Heaven and lower the probability of Hell? Capture these as candidate actions.
10 min - 7
Debrief the values: ask 'What does our Heaven reveal about what we truly value?' and 'What assumptions shaped our Hell?' — this is usually the richest conversation of the session.
10 min
Tips
The Heaven and Hell framings are deliberately extreme — they surface values more effectively than moderate scenarios.
The debrief of 'what does our Heaven reveal about what we truly value?' is often the richest conversation.',
Common pitfalls
Letting groups write moderate, 'realistic' futures — softened scenarios produce polite consensus and never surface the values the extreme framings are designed to expose
Rushing or skipping the history pass, so the Heaven and Hell debates run on incompatible unspoken narratives of how the group got here
Mapping Heaven and Hell as end-states only, without the chain of events leading to each — it is the trajectories that make intervention points visible
Treating the Hell scenario as a forecast rather than a values-surfacing device, which tips the room into defensiveness or gloom
Cutting the debrief when time runs short — without the 'what does this reveal about what we value?' conversation you are left with impressive wall art and no strategic insight
Variations
Run with individual reflection followed by group synthesis. Combine with Scenario Planning for more detailed future development.
Where it fits
When to use it
A strategic planning group keeps extrapolating the present forward and needs to break out of incremental thinking
You suspect the group holds unspoken, conflicting assumptions about what 'good' looks like — the extreme Heaven and Hell framings force those values into the open
After a major organisational change, when the group needs a shared narrative of how it arrived at the current state before it can plan forward
Long-range visioning where moderate scenarios keep producing bland, consensus futures nobody argues with
Community or multi-stakeholder planning where different parties carry different histories that need airing before agreement is possible
When not to use it
You need a concrete risk plan for one specific project or decision — a Premortem gets there faster and more precisely
You have less than an hour: compressing the history, Heaven, and Hell passes hollows out the debrief, which is where the value lives
The group is smaller than five people — there is not enough narrative diversity to make the Heaven and Hell contrasts interesting
You are weighing a single defined change and its drivers and blockers — Force Field Analysis is the sharper tool for that
You need detailed, plausible future scenarios to plan against — use Scenario Planning; Future Backwards surfaces values and assumptions, not forecasts
Related methods
Frequently asked questions
How do you facilitate a Future Backwards exercise?▾
Draw a timeline on a large surface with the past on the left and the future on the right, then run three mapping passes: the history that led to today, a deliberately extreme best-case future (Heaven), and a worst plausible future (Hell), each with the chain of events leading to it. Plot the current trajectory, identify interventions that shift it toward Heaven, and debrief what the scenarios reveal about the group's values. Plan 60–120 minutes for 5–30 participants.
How long does a Future Backwards session take?▾
Plan 60–120 minutes. A 90-minute version splits roughly into 20 minutes for the history pass, 35 for the Heaven and Hell scenarios, and the remainder for the current trajectory, strategic interventions, and the values debrief. Anything under an hour forces you to cut the debrief, which is where the method pays off.
What are Heaven and Hell in the Future Backwards method?▾
Heaven is the best imaginable future state; Hell is the worst plausible one. Both are deliberately extreme — Dave Snowden and Cynthia Kurtz designed the framings that way because extreme scenarios surface a group's real values and assumptions far more effectively than moderate, 'realistic' ones, which tend to collapse into safe consensus.
How is Future Backwards different from scenario planning?▾
Scenario Planning builds a set of detailed, plausible futures to test strategy against; Future Backwards uses two deliberately implausible extremes to expose the values and unspoken assumptions driving a group's thinking. They combine well: run Future Backwards first to surface what matters, then Scenario Planning to develop the plausible futures in detail.
How many people do you need for a Future Backwards workshop?▾
It works with 5–30 participants. Below five there is too little narrative diversity for the Heaven and Hell contrasts to generate insight; above roughly ten, split into small groups for the Heaven and Hell passes and bring the maps together for the shared debrief.
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